Global Demand Outlook
Critical mineral and precious metal markets have experienced turbulent conditions in the last couple of years. Growing geopolitical tensions — marked by export controls on key materials and technologies — have heightened supply risks. Disruptions to flows of critical minerals are not just theoretical.
Also, the demand is rising sharply, but investment is not scaling at pace. The constraint is rarely geology or headline capital — it is bankability: the risk allocation, revenue certainty and delivery confidence that mainstream private finance requires.
Demand for copper, aluminum, lithium, graphite, silver, and manganese is rising as electrification and clean-power buildout intensify. Copper faces the most acute long-term pressure, as a boom in copper-intensive data centers coincides with mine disruptions and slow permitting. Copper alone shows a $250bn investment gap by 2030 against a projected 30% supply shortfall by 2035.
As India moves towards its net zero target of 2070, demand for critical minerals — including lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, graphite, and rare earth elements — is expected to grow substantially. India’s limited domestic resources and mining capacity make strategic stockpiling essential for uninterrupted access.
The National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM) of India envisions securing a long-term, sustainable supply of critical minerals and strengthening India’s critical mineral value chains — from mineral exploration and mining to beneficiation, processing, and recovery from end-of-life products.
With a budget exceeding ₹34,000 crores (USD 4 Billion), the Government of India aims to build a globally competitive and resilient critical mineral ecosystem — ensuring India’s self-reliance amid growing global demand and geopolitical supply risks.
Critical Minerals, REEs & Precious Metals
Li
Lithium (Li): Li2CO3 and LIOH
Core components in Solid-state batteries; Electric vehicle batteries (cars, buses, two-wheelers). Main component in grid-scale energy storage systems (store energy from solar and wind). Battery electrolytes & cathode materials. Lithium salts (LiPF₆, LiCoO₂, LiFePO₄) are responsible for the quick charging and long life of the batteries.
Demand Growth (Drivers) : Energy storage demand rose 71% in 2025
Supply Dynamics : A surplus was seen in 2025, but a deficit is expected in 2026 (22,000–80,000 t).
Cu
Copper
Required for the production of EV motors, inverters, wiring, and charging ports. Solar photovoltaic systems, windmills, and their inverters are the major users of copper wiring. Cables for power transmission, transformers, substations, and smart meters. The data transmission for cooling systems in data centers is done through copper cabling.
Demand Growth (Drivers) : The global market value in 2025 was approximately $248.2 billion. The IEA expects demand for copper to surpass available supply by 2035 unless remedial measures are taken.
Supply Dynamics: Interruptions at mines in Indonesia, Chile, and Peru are contributing to copper’s tight supply. A deficit in refined copper is predicted for 2026.
Ni
Nickel
High-energy EV batteries and energy storage: Use in the cathodes (NMC, NCA) drives maximum EV range. Nickel alloys and superalloys are also used to manufacture jet engines, turbines, and space systems.
Advanced Electronics: Nickel is used in connectors, resistors, and heat-resistant components.
Demand Growth (Drivers) : Stainless steel production and battery cathodes have pushed up the demand for nickel significantly.
Supply Dynamics : Reserves in China and the stocking of high-purity nickel for securing supply are a part of the strategy. Price fluctuations worldwide are due to geopolitical matters and trade disputes.
Co
Cobalt
Used in EV and Energy Storage Batteries. It improves thermal stability, safety, and battery life. Superalloys for Aerospace as well as Super magnets and Electronics. Processing and Refining with Catalysts; in the steps of crude oil refining and in some chemical reactions.
Demand Growth (Drivers) : Global cobalt demand is estimated at ~230–240 thousand tonnes in 2026 driven mainly by EV batteries, which account for nearly 70% of total consumption.
Supply Constraints : Declining ore grades and long mine development cycles of 7–10 years limit new supply. In 2025, over 70% of cobalt supply continued to come from the DRC, keeping supply exposed to geopolitical and regulatory disruptions.
C
Graphite
Graphite is the major anode material, and each EV battery consumes 50 to 70 kg, thus it cannot be replaced in the existing battery chemistry. Due to their excellent conductivity and stability, it is one of the main materials used in EVs, grid-scale storage, and fast-charging systems. It is used in heat management systems, thermal pads, and electronic components as well.
Demand : The global demand for graphite is more than 1.5 million tonnes per year, half of which is for batteries. The electricity vehicles and energy storage expansion is the main factor of demand growth at a rate of 15-20% CAGR.
Supply : The supply is still very concentrated, with natural graphite mainly coming from a few countries, while synthetic graphite is energy-consuming and costly. The graphite market in 2025 faced oversupply, trade disputes, and continued Chinese dominance, leading to persistently low prices.
Mn
Manganese
Mn is a material used in NMC and LMFP batteries, lowering cost and improving safety. Cobalt-free high-manganese batteries are emerging as alternatives to heavy cobalt batteries. Also used in Advanced High-Strength Steels (AHSS) and Water Purification and Electronics including wind turbine components.
Demand Growth (Drivers) : The market for Battery-grade manganese is expected to double in the coming 10 years owing to the early adoption of high-manganese cathodes, which already account for about 15% of the total battery market.
Supply Constraints : Despite large reserves, the refining capacity for battery-grade manganese is a bottleneck.
Zn
Zinc
Zinc Galvanization for Clean Infrastructure and Steel used in EVs, wind turbines, and solar structures is protected. Zinc-Air & Zinc-Bromine Batteries are the new low-cost energy storage technologies. Zinc coatings are used for bridges, railways, and EV charging stations as they provide further life.
Demand Growth (Drivers) : Zinc demand is estimated at ~13.8–14.2 million tonnes in 2025. The global demand for zinc is approximately 14 million tonnes and is expanding by 3–4% yearly.
Supply Constraints : The supply was ~ 13.0 – 13.4 million tonnes in 2025, lagging demand. The closure of mines, the decreasing quality of ores, and the delay in the implementation of new projects are the major reasons for the limitation in future supply growth.
Pb
Lead
Advanced Lead-Acid Batteries which are used in start-stop vehicles, telecom towers, UPS systems and backup power & data centers- Reliable emergency power systems. Use in X-ray rooms, nuclear plants, medical imaging equipment as well as Defense & Aerospace Applications. Lead has one of the highest recycling rates globally (>95%).
Demand Growth (Drivers) : Lead-acid batteries accounted for 81% of the lead market in 2025, with motive-power batteries (forklifts, EVs) expected to be the fastest-growing segment at 3.05% CAGR through 2031.
Supply Advantage : The recycling rates of lead are very high (>85%) which means that there is supply stability and the environmental impact is less than that of many other metals.
W
Tungsten
Tungsten’s hardness and resistance make it ideal for industrial tools. Its high strength, density, and temperature tolerance make it valuable for missiles, ammunition, jet engine components. Its excellent conductivity and high melting point suit electric contacts, filaments, and semiconductor components.
Demand: The market size of tungsten in 2026 would be \$6–\$7 billion. Global demand is forecast to rise by 4–7% annually, according to the British Geological Survey.
Supply: The supply of tungsten is constrained due to limited new mining projects and heavy reliance on a single country. China controls around 80% of the global tungsten, making itself a highly concentrated market.
Ta
Tantalum
Tantalum is primarily used in the electronics industry. It is used for the production of capacitors. Capacitors are used in smartphones, laptops, tablets, cameras and other electronic devices. Due to its capacity to withstand high temperatures and stress it is used in the parts of jet engines and other critical aerospace systems.
Demand: USD 2.5–3 billion in 2026 is the most defensible number for tantalum products, with ~3.15 kilotons in physical volume.
Supply: Supply is geographically concentrated and unstable. The major global share of tantalum originates from Central Africa such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda
Cr
Chromium
Chromium usage reaches 85-90 percent through its application which delivers corrosion resistance and strength to stainless steel production. The material serves as a component in superalloys which function at elevated temperatures.
Demand: The estimated chromium market size is 44.88 kilotons in 2025. There is demand of chromium due to expansion in construction, urbanization, industrialization, automobile and consumer industry.
Supply: It is extracted from chromite ore. Major producers are South Africa (highest supplier), Kazakhstan, India, Turkey. Supply is vulnerable due to supply shortages, labour issues and export policies.
Sn
Tin
Tin Plating: It is used as tin coating in steel materials such as in food can containers to create a protective barrier against corrosion while maintaining safety standards. The process serves as an essential component for soldering work which connects circuit boards and semiconductors and electrical components together.
Demand: The market size of tin market is close to 500 kilotons globally. The demand is rising from EVs, 5G infrastructure, and renewable energy systems.
Supply: Supply of tin comes both from primary mining and recycling. Major producers are China, Indonesia, Myanmar, Peru, Bolivia. The market is relatively tight so there is price volatility.
Ti
Titanium
The titanium used in aircraft frames, jet engines and missiles because they possess superior strength-to-weight ratios. Pigments (TiO₂): It is widely used in paints, coatings, plastics, and paper for whiteness and opacity.
Demand: The estimated global market size USD 30.6 billion in 2025. There is rising demand for titanium due to the utilisation of aviation, defence and medical industry.
Supply: Titanium is extracted from ores like ilmenite and rutile. Major producers are China, Australia, South Africa, India, Japan, Russia. China dominates in processing.
Pr
Praseodymium
Light REE
Pr+Nd combination increases magnetic strength in EV motors and wind turbines. Aerospace superalloys for jet engines. Laser systems and optical filters for defence and telecom.
Demand: ~119,700 tonnes in 2025, growing 8–10%/yr
Risk: >85% of supply from China
Nd
Neodymium
Light REE
Core element for Nd-Fe-B magnets in EV traction motors (high torque). Direct-drive wind turbines. Consumer electronics — speakers, hard drives, smartphones. Industrial robots and AI machines.
Demand: Exceeded ~60,000 tonnes by 2025; +35% from EV sales · Each EV uses 1–2 kg Nd-based magnets vs. negligible in ICE
La
Lanthanum
Light REE
Indispensable in nickel-metal hydride batteries for hybrid vehicles. Oil refinery catalysts. Optical and medical lenses. Hydrogen storage alloys.
Demand: ~$75M market in 2025, growing 6–7%/yr ·
Supply: Abundant but processing capacity constrained outside China
Sm
Samarium
Light REE
Sm-Co magnets perform in extreme heat — ideal for aerospace and defence. Missile and radar electronics. Nuclear reactor control as a neutron absorber.
Growth: ~5% CAGR in defence, aerospace & nuclear
Status: Strategic metal with government-backed procurement
Ce
Cerium
Light REE
Cerium oxide enhances oxygen storage in automotive catalytic converters. Boosts performance of solid oxide fuel cells. Electronics polishing for smartphones, LCD, and optical components.
Demand: 50,500t in 2025, growing 4–5%/yr · Stricter emission standards driving more cerium oxide catalyst consumption
Gd
Gadolinium
Heavy REE
MRI contrast agents for diagnostic clarity. Nuclear energy safety as neutron absorber. Advanced magnetic, thermal, and radiation sensors. Magnetic refrigeration systems.
Market: USD 5.94B in 2025 · Projected ~6%/yr growth driven by global healthcare expansion
Supply: Complex separation processes
Tb
Terbium
Heavy REE
Prevents EV and wind turbine motors from losing magnetism at high temperatures. Green phosphors in LED displays and lighting. Precision laser and optical defence instruments.
Market: 0.29K tonnes in 2025 · Demand growing 9–11% from wind turbines & EV magnets
Risk: <1% of global REE production
Dy
Dysprosium
Heavy REE
Improves heat resistance and durability of EV motor magnets. Reduces power fluctuations in wind turbines. Aerospace & defence motors under extreme stress. Nuclear reactor safety components.
Market: 2.78K tonnes in 2025 · CAGR ~10% from high-temperature EV magnets
Supply: Mining output <3%/yr — structural deficit forming
Yb
Ytterbium
Heavy REE
Primary application in industrial fiber lasers for cutting and welding. Signal amplification in optical fiber telecommunications. Surgical and therapeutic medical laser devices. Atomic clocks.
Growth: ~7%/yr from laser and telecom applications
Supply: Confined to East Asia for commercial extraction · Data center expansion driving demand
Au
Gold
Total gold demand, including OTC, reached 1,231 tonnes (up 2% year-on-year), with the value of demand jumping 74% to a record \$193 billion as prices hit \$5,400/oz in January. Bar and coin investment: Semiconductors and microelectronics—gold in chips, jewellery, connectors, and circuit boards.
Demand : Geopolitical risk premium is expected to continue and possibly expand. ETF and OTC demand should stay positive but below 2025 levels as rates may stay higher for longer in 2026.
Supply : Mine production hit record but growth remains modest. The World Gold Council outlook flags structural supply constraints: longer-term challenges around finding, permitting, financing and building new large-scale mining projects continue.
Ag
Silver
Silver’s high conductivity enhances solar PV electric power collection. EV contacts, switches, and battery components. 5G and IoT devices. Antimicrobial medical equipment coatings. Silver was around $81/oz in early February (up 14% YTD) and it rose 147% in 2025.
Demand : Industrial fabrication, the largest component of silver demand, is projected to decline 2% to around 650 Moz in 2026.
Supply : Total global silver supply is forecast to increase by 1.5% to a decade high of 1.05 billion ounces. Mine production is forecast to rise 1% to 820 Moz, and recycling is set to rise 7%, exceeding 200 Moz for the first time since 2012.
Pt
Platinum
Industrial: Modest growth in 2025, in line with capacity expansions in the chemicals, fibreglass, biofuels and synthetic fuels sectors. Jewellery: the gold-to-platinum price ratio reached 3.5x in May 2025, its highest level since 2015, prompting some Chinese fabricators to switch to platinum.
Demand : The platinum market is in its fourth consecutive year of structural deficit. WPIC expects platinum market deficits to average 689 koz per annum from 2026 to 2029, or approximately 9% of annual demand.
Supply : Primary supply was predicted to decline 3% in 2025, with South African PGM output constrained by operational restructuring, severe weather, and process plant maintenance.
Pd
Palladium
Automotive uses account for ~80–85% of total palladium demand, where palladium is used in catalytic converters in gasoline engines. Lower production of gasoline vehicles was predicted to cut automotive palladium demand by 5% in 2025.
Rh
Rhodium
Automotive catalytic converters (~80%): Approximately 80% of rhodium demand is driven by automotive catalytic converters due to stringent emission regulations. Rhodium is essential for reducing NOx in gasoline engines — practically irreplaceable.
Demand : The global rhodium industry size reached 24.46 tons in 2025, projected to reach 34.1 tons by 2034 at a CAGR of 3.65%. Annually, about 25 tons of rhodium are mined globally, with 85% coming from South Africa. Russia, Zimbabwe, and Canada account for 14% of production
Supply : Roughly 85% of rhodium is mined in South Africa, with Russia, Zimbabwe, and Canada accounting for most of the remaining supply. Annual global mine output is around 25 tons, so supply remains highly concentrated and difficult to scale quickly.
Ir
Iridium
Hydrogen electrolyzers (PEM): The structural growth story — iridium is the catalyst on the anode side of PEM water electrolysis, with no commercially viable substitute. Iridium crucibles: For high-purity crystal growth (semiconductors, LEDs)
Demand : The smallest and most extreme of the group. The global iridium industry size reached 7.7 tons in 2025, with IMARC expecting the market to reach 11.2 tons by 2034 at a projected CAGR of 4.11%
Supply : It is produced only as a minor by-product of platinum mining, meaning production cannot simply be scaled up when demand increases. South Africa accounts for over 80% of global rhodium, ruthenium and iridium output.