November 2019: Will India Dominate Global Growth in 2024?

The global economy is weighed down by Trade conflicts and that has hindered international trade and led to uncertainty. It is expected to see slower growth in the next five years.

As per a report from IMF, China’s share of global GDP growth is expected to fall from 32.7% in 2018-2019 to 28.3% by 2024, a sharp decrease of 4.4 percentage points. The global growth is expected to fall to 3% this year and the slowest since the global financial crisis. It will affect 90% of the world, according to estimates released this week.

Which economies are the key players now and where will global growth come from in five years?

The U.S., while still expected to contribute a bigger portion to world growth, is expected to fall to third place, after India. America’s share of global growth is expected to decrease from 13.8% to 9.2% by 2024. America’s share of global growth is expected to decrease from 13.8% to 9.2% by 2024, while India’s share is projected to rise from 13.5% to 15.5% and eclipse the U.S. in the next 5 years.

The IMF said new growth engines among the top 20 countries in five years will include Turkey, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia, while Spain, Poland, Canada and Vietnam drop out of the first 20.

Ease of Doing Business in India:

India jumped 14 places to the 63rd position on the World Bank’s ease of doing business ranking 2019 riding high on the government’s flagship ”Make in India” scheme and reforms attracting foreign investment. The rankings come at a time when the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) have slashed the country’s growth forecasts amid a slowdown in the global economy.

India was ranked 142nd among 190 nations when Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office in 2014. Four years of reform pushed up India’s rank to 100th in World Bank’s ”Doing Business” 2018 report. It was 130th in 2017 and last year, the country jumped 23 places to the 77th position on the back of reforms related to insolvency, taxation and other areas.

Prime Minister Modi’s ”Make in India” campaign focused on attracting foreign investment, boosting the private sector – manufacturing in particular – and enhancing the country’s overall competitiveness, the World Bank said in its report.

The Indian government has committed to incorporating labour laws into three other codes to ease India’s convoluted and, often, contradictory labour regulations. These codes are expected to make India competitive vis-à-vis its peer group. These will help attract greater FDI inflows, especially from companies leaving China.

Investors can find no better place in the world than India that has a democracy loving and capitalist respecting environment, Union Finance Minister of India, Nirmala Sitharaman has said. To make sure consumption is boosted, India is actively spending on public infrastructure and by putting actual money in the hands of the people, to ensure the stress, which is specific to some sectors, is addressed, Sitharaman said.

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